Why North Korea is threatening to pull out of the U.S. summit
2018-05-16 00:00:00


JUDY WOODRUFF: We return to the prospect oftalks now in question between President Trump(1)
JUDY WOODRUFF:我们回到特朗普总统之间正在讨论的谈判前景

and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.(2)
和朝鲜的金正恩。

For more on what the recent back and forthmeans, I'm joined by Joel Wit.(3)
想了解更多近期来回的意思,我会加入Joel Wit。

He worked as part of the State Departmentteam that negotiated a nuclear agreement with(4)
他是国务院团队的一员,与美国谈判达成核协议

North Korea during the Clinton administration.(5)
朝鲜在克林顿政府时期。

He is now a senior fellow at the U.S.-KoreaInstitute at Johns Hopkins University and(6)
他现在是约翰霍普金斯大学美韩研究所的高级研究员

founder of 38 North.(7)
38北方的创始人。

It's a Web site that focuses on Korea.(8)
这是一个专注于韩国的网站。

Joel Wit, thank you very much.(9)
Joel Wit,非常感谢。

Welcome back to the program.(10)
欢迎回到节目。

How to you read what North Korea is sayingright now?(11)
如何阅读朝鲜现在所说的话?

JOEL WIT, Johns Hopkins University: Well,there are a number of different ways to read(12)
约翰霍普金斯大学JOEL WIT:好的,有很多不同的阅读方式

it, but I think the main way to read it isthat, for months, we have been used to North(13)
它,但我认为阅读它的主要方式是,几个月来,我们已经习惯了北方

Korea essentially being a pussycat, whichis very different from the way they have been(14)
韩国本质上是一只猫,与他们的方式截然不同

in the past.(15)
以往。

And I think now they're reverting back totheir past behavior in the run-up to the summit,(16)
我认为他们现在正在回到峰会前的过去行为,

and that means trying to heighten the pressureon the United States to give them a good deal.(17)
这意味着要加大对美国的压力,给他们一个很好的交易。

And by threatening to not go to the summit,that's their attempt to do that.(18)
通过威胁不去峰会,那是他们的尝试。

JUDY WOODRUFF: What precipitated this?(19)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这是什么造成的?

Can you tell what was behind these statements?(20)
你能说出这些陈述背后的含义吗?

JOEL WIT: Well, aside from the general NorthKorean attempt to play tough guy, which they(21)
JOEL WIT:呃,除了一般朝鲜企图扮演硬汉,他们

normally do, there could have been a numberof other things that were going on.(22)
通常情况下,可能会发生许多其他事情。

One, it may reflect difficulties in secretpreparatory talks that are leading up to the(23)
第一,这可能反映出秘密筹备会谈导致的困难

summit that I think are being held in Singapore.(24)
我认为这次峰会正在新加坡举行。

JUDY WOODRUFF: These are -- and these areunder -- have been under way.(25)
JUDY WOODRUFF:这些是 - 而这些 - 正在进行中。

JOEL WIT: They have been under way, because,as we all know, the leaders don't sit down(26)
JOEL WIT:他们一直在进行,因为众所周知,领导者不会坐下

in a summit and negotiate agreements by themselves.(27)
在峰会上自行协商协议。

There's a lot of preparation ahead of time.(28)
提前准备很多。

So it could be a reflection of that.(29)
所以这可能是对此的反映。

But, secondly, it's also a reaction to someof the statements by Trump administration(30)
但是,其次,这也是特朗普政府发表的一些声明的反应

officials, like John Bolton, which basicallysay to the North Koreans, you give up your(31)
官员,如约翰博尔顿,基本上对朝鲜人说,你放弃你的

nuclear weapons and then we will reward youafterwards.(32)
核武器,然后我们会奖励你。

And that's unacceptable to them.(33)
这是他们无法接受的。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, if Bolton's statement wenttoo far, which the White House -- we reported(34)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,如果博尔顿的言论太过分了,我们就报道了白宫

earlier the White House sounds like they'rebacking away from that.(35)
早些时候白宫听起来像是在退缩。

They're saying, we don't have a specific planfor what we think North Korea should do.(36)
他们说,我们对朝鲜应该做的事没有具体的计划。

But it does sound as if there is room forthe North Koreans to do something, to do some(37)
但听起来似乎北韩人有空间做某些事情,做一些事情

step, some measure toward nuclear disarmament.(38)
一步,采取一些措施实现核裁军。

JOEL WIT: Well, that's exactly the case.(39)
JOEL WIT:呃,情况就是如此。

That's what a negotiation is about.(40)
谈判就是这样。

So what we're hearing are -- at least fromthe United States, we're hearing the opening(41)
所以我们听到的是 - 至少从美国,我们听到开幕式

position, which is, you give up everything,and then we will give you something in return.(42)
立场,即放弃一切,然后我们会给你一些回报。

And the North Korean position, which isn'tpublic, but I'm pretty sure is, no, we will(43)
而朝鲜的立场,这是不公开的,但我敢肯定,不,我们会的

gradually give up things, but you give usthings in return during that process.(44)
逐渐放弃的东西,但你在这个过程中给我们的东西作为回报。

So the issue is whether the two sides canmeet somewhere in between that's acceptable(45)
所以问题是双方是否可以在可接受的地方相遇

to both.(46)
二者皆是。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, the Trump administration-- the North Koreans are saying, you need(47)
JUDY WOODRUFF:所以,特朗普政府 - 北韩人说,你需要

to do something about these joint exercisesthe U.S. and South Korea.(48)
对这些联合演习美国和韩国做些事情。

They're saying a couple of things.(49)
他们说了几件事。

The U.S., the Trump administration has beensaying, we're not going to make any concessions.(50)
美国特朗普政府一直在说,我们不会做任何让步。

It's entirely up to the North.(51)
这完全取决于北方。

But, in fact, are there steps that the U.S.and South Korea are going to need to take,(52)
但实际上,美国和韩国需要采取哪些步骤,

to need to seriously consider taking beforethere can be any deal?(53)
需要认真考虑之前可以有任何交易?

JOEL WIT: Well, there are a lot of steps,because what the North Koreans are going to(54)
JOEL WIT:嗯,有很多步骤,因为朝鲜人会去

demand are, first, the normalization of relationswith the United States, the establishment(55)
需求首先是与美国关系正常化的建立

of diplomatic relations.(56)
外交关系。

Secondly, they're going to demand liftingof the sanctions.(57)
其次,他们将要求取消制裁。

And the third step they're going to demandis a peace treaty.(58)
他们要求的第三步是和平条约。

And all of these are big steps for the UnitedStates and South Korea to take.(59)
所有这些都是美国和韩国采取的重大举措。

And the issue is whether we're willing todo that and get denuclearization in return.(60)
问题是我们是否愿意这样做,并获得无核化的回报。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Are you -- were you -- beforethese statements happened in the last few(61)
JUDY WOODRUFF:在最近几次发生这些言论之前,你是否 - 是吗?

days -- or from the last 24 hours from NorthKorea, did you have a sense that things were(62)
天 - 或者从朝鲜的最后24小时起,你是否感觉到事情是这样的

moving in a positive direction?(63)
朝着积极的方向前进?

JOEL WIT: You know, it's very difficult tosay because most of us can only see what's(64)
JOEL WIT:你知道,这很难说,因为我们大多数人只能看到是什么

going on in public, and there wasn't muchgoing on at all, except the occasional public(65)
在公共场合进行,除偶尔的公众之外,没有什么进展

statements by the North Koreans and the UnitedStates.(66)
朝鲜和美国的声明。

So it's hard to say whether things are movingin the right direction, and this could be(67)
所以很难说事情是否朝着正确的方向发展,这可能是

the first sign that things aren't moving inthe right direction.(68)
第一个迹象表明事情并没有朝着正确的方向发展。

And so we need to watch very closely and seewhat happens from now to the summit.(69)
所以我们需要非常仔细地观察,看看从现在到峰会会发生什么。

JUDY WOODRUFF: What do you expect to happennext?(70)
JUDY WOODRUFF:你预计接下来会发生什么?

Who makes the next move?(71)
谁下一步呢?

JOEL WIT: You know, I'm not sure there areany more moves yet, because the secret talks(72)
JOEL WIT:你知道,我不确定还有什么动作,因为秘密会谈

are under way.(73)
正在进行中。

We will see what happens in those.(74)
我们将看到那些发生了什么。

And there could be more back and forth publicly.(75)
而且可能会有更多来回公开。

But if we don't see an escalation of the currentexchanges between President Trump and the(76)
但是如果我们没有看到特朗普总统和美国总统之间目前交流的升级

North Koreans, then that means things aremoving along in the right direction.(77)
这意味着朝鲜人朝着正确的方向前进。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Do you have a gut instinct,Joel Wit, about whether this gets back on(78)
JUDY WOODRUFF:你是否有一种直觉,Joel Wit,是否会回归

track or not?(79)
跟踪还是不跟踪?

JOEL WIT: You know, all along, I have thoughtthat there will be a summit, and a lot of(80)
JOEL WIT:你知道,一直以来,我都认为会有峰会,还有很多

people have been very skeptical about that.(81)
人们一直对此持怀疑态度。

And my analysis is from the North Korean angle.(82)
我的分析来自朝鲜的角度。

I think they are very serious about havinga meeting with President Trump and finding(83)
我认为他们非常认真地与特朗普总统会面,并发现

a way from confrontation to a peaceful pathforward.(84)
从对抗走向和平前进的道路。

The issue is, as I said earlier, whether wecan make the two sides' positions come together(85)
正如我刚才所说,问题是我们能否让双方的立场走到一起

in a way that's acceptable to both.(86)
两种方式都可以接受。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Joel Wit, with the U.S.-KoreaInstitute at Johns Hopkins University, thank(87)
JUDY WOODRUFF:Joel Wit,约翰霍普金斯大学美韩研究所,谢谢

you.(88)
您。

JOEL WIT: Thank you.(89)
JOEL WIT:谢谢。


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